Thursday, August 9, 2007

Calm, Cool, & Collected

It may be too late to sell...the stock market is going to gap lower this morning, and those of you setting up sell orders may get taken out at the lows. The news of the morning for me is not that another hedge fund or two is blowing up due to the credit freeze out there, but the fact that the Fed Funds futures are pricing a 100% chance of a rate cut by September. In fact, I hearken back to the 90's when we had a surprise rate cut or two. The stock market zoomed higher after these events. We may be back in the zone where the Fed could come in with shock and awe and take the market by surprise with a rate cut. The bottom line is this: Surprise moves the market, not something that we have been facing down for months (ie SUBPRIME)...the market has been digesting and discounting the worst of the credit freeze, it's what is directly ahead of us that isn't yet priced into the market, and what is ahead could be negative OR positive news! So stay calm, cool, and collected.

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