Financial Arms Dealer to the Casino

Global Cash Access - symbol GCA - bet you've never heard of it. Believe it or not, if you have ever strolled through a casino, they were all around you. This shop is the primary banking service company to the casino market. Heck, they have a $1.4 billion cap, been around almost ten years, went public in late 2005. If you need financial sector exposure, this one makes sense to me. They offer cash advance service, ATM transactions and terminal services, game machine redemption kiosks, and the industry’s first credit card just for casino clients. They are embedded into the casino environment, even offering customer intelligence type reports to casino executives. This allows casinos the ability to track customer cash access and transaction activity, as well as offer lines of credit, check verification, and other money transfer services. Think of GCA as the primary arms dealer banking company that allows for smooth cash movement in and around the casino floor. Pretty cool huh. On the other hand, if you must withdraw cash from one of their ATMs, you're probably in over your head!!

S&P 500 @ New Highs and AAPL Explodes Higher

New highs for Apple Inc. too...here's one that got away...that's the story from yours truly today. Is it too late to buy these shares? The iPhone hits next month, will it be a smash hit? Last i heard, there were over 1mm people lining up to buy the new phone. What a string of successes here. Maybe we wait until Steve Jobs is declared Man of the Year, or Apple gets Time Magazine (or Fortune or Business Week) Company of the Year kudos, and then she's a sell. Not sure if they have attained those illustrious achievements yet. Congrats to all AAPL shareholders and to those who haven't sold all the way up, or didn't get shaken out early last year! (Ugh!)

UUUUUUUUURANIUM !!

I can't seem to unclog my mail inbox (snail or email) as I am continually blitzed with the latest uranium stock idea. My recent favorite is something called CanAm Uranium Corp (CAUI). The snail mail piece received today (not the first time i or my colleagues have received one about CAUI) even positively mentioned how they are one of a few listed on the OTC BB! They were emphasizing how uranium fever has so many stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but few on the OTCBB, and how in some twisted way, this is a benefit to the investor. I love it. This is only the beginning, as these mailers make my day. I am probably doing the marketer a favor by blogging about it too!

First, the cover claims in highlighted fashion: "This report is being sent to 4.9 million investors." I guess they want me to think 4.9 million lemmings are going to buy hand over fist and I better get my trade in before they do! Ok, next we have this wonderful statement: "I believe this will be the most profitable stock pick of my entire career. If you'd like to experience the thrill of rapid, mind-boggling profit, get in CAUI today." Jolly, sounds fantastic, I hope he is right.

The letter goes on to state things like how CAUI has "optioned interests in eight previously explored uranium properties near Bancroft, Canada, where four uranium mines were once operational. The properties total 9,765 acres and have the "43-101" report FILED. Bancroft was well known for its uranium, producing a total of 14,862,653 lbs U308 between 1956 and 1982." Hmmm, my thought, it took 26 years to mine 14.8mm pounds of uranium? And how much is left in the ground?

Ok, ok, not to pick on CAUI, the best part is the small print. I always read the disclaimer, as this gives me the most enjoyment. I ponder these things late at night, in the stillness of the twilight, when clear thinking is possible - The Notion: Why aren't we in the same promotional type business!! This particular newsletter - PUSN - Profitable Uranium Stocks Newsletter - was paid $2.1 million for coverage of CAUI. The disclaimer also states neat things such as "This four page information package is for entertainment purposes only. Don't rely on any information in it..." That is an incredible statement!! Don't you love it! Lots of legalese disclaimer boiler plate stuff included, but it clearly sums up the situation when stating it is for entertainment purposes only and how they are compensated with $2.1mm cash (or shares) to write the thing!

Capitalism is so much fun. I hope investors are careful out there. Lastly, CAUI changed its name last year from Boulder Creek Explorations to its current moniker...and I find it curious they are incorporated in Las Vegas, Nevada (of all places) but the "contact us" button on their website is for Bellingham, WA.

Men of Steel

When thinking Basic Materials stocks, and at the sub sector level - Steel & Iron - the biggest name in the group? Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), a Brazilian $100 billion cap name. After yesterdays broad sell off, the steel names are bouncing back sharply. What is interesting to note about RIO - it's doubled in about 6 months - adding $50 billion in cap in a short period of time. They are a direct beneficiary of money flowing into Latin America and other emerging markets. Here are the leaders by market cap in this segment:

COMPANHIA VALE ADS [RIO] $106.1 B
RIO TINTO PLC ADS [RTP] $94.4 B
ARCELOR MITTAL [MT] $81.5 B
POSCO [PKX] $37.0 B
TENARIS S.A ADS [TS] $27.8 B
NUCOR CP [NUE] $19.5 B
GERDAU SA ADS [GGB] $14.5 B
COMPANHIA SIDER ADS [SID] $12.9 B
IPSCO INC [IPS] $7.4 B
TERNIUM S.A. ADS [TX] $5.3 B

Worst Performing Gp today = Silver; -5%

Names in the Silver Industry getting nicked today:

name, symbol, today's change, market cap
SILVER WHEATON CORP [SLW] -4.87% $2.5 B
SILVER STAND RES [SSRI] -5.66% $2.4 B
PAN AMER SILVER CO [PAAS] -4.03% $2.1 B
APEX SILVER MINES SC [SIL] -5.23% $1.3 B
COEUR D ALENE CP [CDE] -3.02% $1.0 B

right there leading the downside charge? Metals mixed with mining names. See the XME chart above.

Price Elasticity

Today's big economic news was the April New Home Sales report. A monstrous monthly increase was reported (+16.2%), the highest gain in 14 years. At the same time, the report also shows how the median sales price nationwide declined 10.9% from the same period a year ago and over 11% from last month. Click here for the report. What i find unique is that there is no mention of the natural economic ebb and flow that is called supply and demand, and how PRICING impacts the two. Elasticity of demand says that demand falls as prices rise, and vice versa. In our example with the new home sales, as home prices fell, demand increased dramatically. There are many buyers still on the sidelines in many markets, patiently waiting for home prices to come down as they have been frozen out of the market due to soaring prices over the past decade. Now that they experienced some relief, they decided to jump at the opportunity. It may not be to the benefit of Toll Brothers, or Centex Homes, but the fact that they had to slash prices to move inventory is a benefit to buyers. Contrast the demand for homes example to the demand for gasoline. In the short run, demand for gas is inelastic, as i need to get to work each and every day, and if my vehicle is a gas guzzler, I have no choice but to fill up at current rates. It takes time for me to either change my habits, or to buy a more fuel efficient car. There are many goods and services i will pay for, and accept price increases, if they happen to be something that fulfills a need or want of mine and there is no price that will keep me away from it. (Think cigarettes for those who smoke). This is inelastic demand in its purest form. Of course at some price point, habits, desire, needs, and wants will change, and then we will have traveled the continuum of price inelasticity to elasticity.

A Dramatic Correction!

Well Mr. G, if so, then let's profit by it! A Reuters story today regarding Alan Greenspan's quote from a conf call in Madrid - click here to review it. I've included FXI once again, but also added Latin America - ILF, for your investment pleasure. Opportunities abound, take advantage!

Insiders Dumping Semis

Investment newsletter Crosscurrents reports sentiment amongst semiconductor insiders is bearish. Assessing six months of data ending May 2nd, Crosscurrents reports among the ten top chipmakers there were 100 sales, totaling 3.75 million shares. This compares to one individual buy of 500 shares in the same time period. The ratio of sales to buys is the worst ever reported by Crosscurrents. The speculation offered is to short the SMH's (Semiconductor HOLDRs), also based on the chip group trading at 5x sales and 22x earnings. We've looked at PSI before as well, and it is trending sideways right now, although periodically testing support at 19. Will she hold?

An Odyssey It Is!

The unfolding theatrics in a publicly traded outfit that catapulted 80% last friday and enjoyed more fast and furious trade today was pure entertainment to the trade oriented investor. Odyssey Marine Exploration (symbol OMR) claims to have found a sunken treasure of more than 500,000 coins at a secret location in the Atlantic Ocean. Some suggest in the English Channel, others think they found the loot off the coast of Spain. Either way, some heavy duty hedge funds are in (or were in the stock until it zoomed 80+% in the past 2 trading sessions), and it was disclosed today that Walt Disney is a business partner with OMR. Click here for the coincidental story about hedgies and Disney in on the action. Spanish authorities came out today with their own version of the situation and seek to claim any loot for themselves. We'll watch closely to see how this investment unfolds. There are 42mm shares in the float and almost 1/2 of them traded today, so i bet many of the hedge funds were unloading their positions onto unsuspecting retail investors.

Foreign Money Headed to the U.S.?

Mark Hulbert points to a Dennis Slothower hotline message from a week ago as something that might be stoking our domestic stock market. Click here to read the Hulbert piece from cbsmarketwatch. Here's the text of the main points:

In his hotline Friday night, he pointed out that the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."
Slothower calculates that this means that "up to $2.3 trillion in China monies ... can now move out of China."

To put a sum like that in perspective, consider that the total value of all publicly traded stocks in this country is around $15.1 trillion, according to Wilshire Associates. If even a modest fraction of the $2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see a "further parabolic advance in equities," as Slothower puts it.

Our intelligence suggests that any tidal wave of money from outside investors will find its way into blue chips, S&P 500 and DJIA type names. We don't think it's natural to assume the Russell 2000 type companies would garner much of the flow from abroad. What this all means, is that the bull market may have room to run! As Slothower says: a "parabolic" advance could be forthcoming! Good luck.

Why are interest rates going up?

With the moderate reading on Consumer Prices earlier this week, and with the price of gold cratering, why is the 10-Year US treasury note declining in price? Wouldn't those who are betting on a rate cut by the fed near the end of the year be cheering a tame inflation report? Wouldn't bullish market participants take note of the gold sell-off? The perversion, and the market is almost always universally perverted, is that interest rates are RISING. That is not a typo, but the 10 year yielded 4.60% last week, and today it is 4.75%. That doesn't square with a fed hell bent on reducing rates later this year.

New ETF's

Hmm, more developments in ETF land: iShares has filed registration statements for some MSCI country funds we haven’t had before: Chile, Israel, Thailand, and Turkey. Also a BRIC fund - but they aren’t first on that one.

Claymore has filed a “Global Luxury” ETF. Unclear exactly what that means. Maybe you get some caviar with every trade? Perhaps you get a discount on the Maybach for every 100 shares you own - seems like every time i open the WSJ, there is an ad for the Maybach, a $350k automobile. Nice.

First Trust has a new “Chindia” fund. Guess what 2 countries it covers? Now trading as FNI. They also have a new water fund, FIW. Click here to see what these new ETFs are all about.

And Claymore now working with Morningstar to get more broad based ETFs into the stable as opposed to their extremely targeted and niche ETFs. Good stuff.

Fun times ahead!

Las Vegas Sands - a Macau Pure Play!

I stumbled upon a well written article from the street.com today about LVS. Click here to read it. This is a stock we've watched and owned over the years, and perhaps she is entering the BUY ZONE again. The street.com article makes a ton of sense. Review to get a feel as to why LVS is a play on the blooming Macau gaming scene, and why it could be a buy in the 70's!

Popping Noise

It is almost palpable on Wall Street today, as the price of gold gets hammered, and the corresponding ETF falls through its 50 day average. The CPI data released yesterday has the inflation goons running for the hills today. The broad market is showing its resilience, climbing higher, as expectations for a rate cut by November gain traction. Gold bugs are selling aggressively today - and it looks like the ETF may find support around it's 200 day moving average, which is approximately 63.

Hitting the Wall

Recalling an earlier post about walls, one of my goals this year is to defeat the runners wall. This is the wall common to all serious athletes, weekend sports enthusiasts, and especially long distance runners. I've had the good fortune to successfully complete 5 marathons, and i plan to run my 6th this fall. Most marathoners will tell you how they hit the wall around the 17 to 20 mile mark, and I am no different. The race to the finish and the will to attain a Boston Qualifying time comes down to how one handles the wall around the 20 mile mark and how one effectively gets over that wall and lunges towards the finish line 10 kilometers away. I hope this is my year to capture that elusive Boston time and to not let the Wall bonk me down.

IPO Stock Watch: lululemon athletica

Everyone wants to find the next Chipotle, or Crocs, two recent IPO success stories. Well, i may have found the next one. A Canadian based yoga apparel company is slated to IPO in Toronto and on the Nasdaq any day now. Name = lululemon athletica. Click here to visit their web site. Net sales in most recent fiscal year grew 77% versus the prior year. Same store sales were a positive 30% of that increase. They have 47 stores in Canada, 12 in the US, two in Japan, and one in Australia. The IPO will bring in > $20mm, of which they will plow into additional stores. This one will be fun to watch. Hopefully Cramer keeps it to himself and doesn't alert the masses!

Flipside of the Nazzie - Materials Continue to Zoom?

Well, if you don't want to snag any downside in the Q's, then grab the materials sector if your thesis is continued upside strength in this leading sector. ProShares has a leveraged Materials ETF - symbol UYM. If you think the strong get stronger, then lever up!! Good luck trading.

Inverse Nasdaq ETF

Today's CPI report was somewhat tame, and the market is attempting to move higher. Those of you looking to hedge long positions, or willing to speculate on a downside move, can buy the PSQ (Short QQQ ProShares) ETF. The market has made a big move off the late Feb / early March mini correction, and all of the fear from that period has melted away into quite a bit of optimism. Do you fade the bullish noise? Once the market runs its course, an appropriate ETF to capture any pullback is PSQ. Good luck!

Nasdaq on the Watch List

The 2525 level of the Nasdaq Comp is worth noting. The broad market is attempting to shake off last Thursday's slide, but it is slightly messy. The COMPQ showed a day of distribution on Thursday the 10th, but one day of distribution doesn't wreck bull markets. However, with the optimism and bullishness being spewed left and right in the financial press and on the boob tube, careful investors tread lightly. It is always easier to buy when there is pain and fear, and I don't see and hear a lot of fear these days, except for the random AAII poll. That said, it is more important to watch the institutions, and the tale of the tape is where to look.

Semis!

Semiconductor shares are showing signs of life. This key technology sub-sector could be signalling better things ahead for tech. Nvidia (earnings release last night) and Applied Materials (brokerage firm upgrade) are big winners today in this sector. PSI is a good ETF to own if you like the semis - that's the PowerShares offering, and you could also grab onto the iShares version - IGW. Check the chart above. Technical comments about IGW: the downtrend dating back to last years correction is now over, and we are approaching significant resistance just above 68. We're sort of in no-mans land between 64 and 68. A trader could initiate a partial position, adding more if she breaks out, or closing swiftly if she breaks down. That is called good risk management.

Focus Stock: USEC; symbol = USU

Die-hard market participants can't turn around without hearing about URANIUM, uranium shares, the new uranium futures contract, uranium junk mail, email blasts, etc etc....You just gotta wonder if the herd has arrived to the uraniums, similar to the heady days of the internets in late 1999. James Dines would argue "NO," but when you see articles in the NY Times and WSJ, plus get bombarded with emails and junk mail featuring the latest "sizzling hot" uranium miner that is on the precipice of making a 5 or 10x move, you gotta ask yourself when will the party end? Anyway, shares of USU have been smoking since last Fall. USEC is approx a $2billion revenue supplier of enriched uranium fuel for commercial nuclear power plants. It operates the only uranium enrichment plant in the USA - location Paducah, Kentucky. Many think USEC has a neat arrangement as the U.S. executive agent for "Megatons to Megawatts Program," a program designed to recycle 500 metric tonnes of weapons grade uranium taken from dismantled Russian nuclear warheads into low enriched uranium utilized by USEC's customers to generate electricity. Pretty cool, huh? Anyway, the stock has blasted off in the past 6 months, and hit all time highs this week. For those long the shares, the question will be how far and how long do you let it run? Placing stops underneath the price probably makes sense to protect your large gains. Good luck!

China, China, China!

FXI exploding higher, by 5% today, right back into resistance zone. Does she break out, or is this the final hurrah? Stay tuned....

SPY (Spyders) Weekly Chart

Friday will be telling, todays action should have all investors "On Alert." We've run hard and strong for 5 straight weeks without a weekly decline, but if volume this week is higher than the past five, it'll mark a shift in professional sentiment. You want to see pullbacks on lighter volume and up moves on heavy volume. Let's see how she plays out tomorrow!

Technical Action Discouraging. Be Careful Out There!

The S&P 500 closed under the mythical 1500 level today. We also crossed below the 10 day moving average, and the 20 day moving average is within eyesight...the short term bull market faces a tough test over the next few sessions. Looking at the Spyders above, the downtick on today's high volume is worth noting too. It comes the day after a new high, which occurred on less volume than today..therefore, we had more institutions selling today versus buying at the height of the rally yesterday. Could this market be exhausted?

Rio Tinto in Play?

Well,
merger mania continues unabated. Now we have the potential news of Rio Tinto (RTP), at close to $95 billion cap, a possible take out candidate from its chief rival, BHP Billiton (BHP), a $155 billion cap giant. The metals and mining space is en fuego! Today's winners (and of course XME at new all time highs):


NORTH AMERICAN PALLA (pal)
+11.67%
JAMES RIVER COAL NEW [jrcc]
+11.24%
MANCHESTER INC [mncs.ob]
+10.62%
TITANIUM METALS CORP [tie]
+7.60%
USEC INC [usu]
+5.84%
METALLINE MINING CO [mmg]
+5.59%
NATIONAL COAL CORP [ncoc]
+5.44%
TIMBERLINE RES CORP [tblc.ob]
+5.42%
BHP BILLITON SP ADR [bbl]
+4.78%
BHP BILLITON LIMITED [bhp]
+4.30%

FOMC Annoucement - Snooze

FOMC meeting today, and the wonderful discounting nature of the market makes this one a snooze fest. More of the same, a neutral statement. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they raised or lowered rates at a later date. There are compelling views on both sides of the growth vs. inflation debate. At some point, there will be "unexpected" news from the Fed, and that will be the day we get some fireworks.

The text was: "Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters. Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information."

Searching for the Next Mega Trend?

Could it be biotech? Check the chart of PBE - the PowerShares biotech offering. If we are on the precipice of a new sector ready to explode higher, it might be biotech. Broadly speaking, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals in particular, have been doing "better" of late. But the biotech ETFs seem to be picking up even more momentum. I've zoomed in on PBE's chart going back over a year, and it appears we may have broken through some important long term resistance levels. If she holds, this ETF may shoot higher.

Metals & Mining Romp Higher

Alcoa's offer to buy Alcan for $33billion set off another surge higher in metals type stocks. These stocks have been on fire. In fact, stock market performance in recent years has been juiced by commodity type plays, energy names, materials companies...and not necessarily financial or technology issues - typical bell weathers. How long will the trend continue?

The Wall

The Wall of Worry metaphor got me thinking about walls. Yes, walls in general; brick walls, plaster walls, religious walls, pink floyds wall, memorial walls, chinese walls, Everson Walls (NFL All-Pro Cornerback who recently donated a kidney to an old teammate!) , etc etc...the list could go on! The Wall Street hype machine gushes about the DJIA hitting all time highs, and the S&P 500 25 points or so away from an all time high, but how might we judge the Wall that the Nasdaq has to climb, as we are still 100% away from its last peak?

Wait a minute, that story about Everson Walls donating a kidney is so outstanding, I had to include a photograph, and lo and behold, Everson Walls is on one of SI's best covers ever. Many of you will recall that pic!!

AAII Poll Means We Go Higher Still!

Read in various media pubs and sites this past weekend some interesting tidbits about the latest AAII poll and overall investor sentiment. This seeking alpha thread has a nice looking chart of past AAII bearish readings. Right now, there are 2x as many bears versus bulls, according to the Poll. Now that's what i call a wall of worry.

S&P 500 since January 2000

The S&P 500 has been sneaking up on its old highs since early 2000. What a wild ride it has been. I wonder how many people sold in 2002 and 2003, and haven't really bought all the way back in.

Claymore ETFs

I was doing market research this morning and noticed how a few of Claymore's ETFs were moving up towards the top of our rankings. Claymore is an interesting shop - as they have rolled out 20 or so ETFs with unique objectives. Click here to visit their ETF page. Their literature states how "Claymore ETFs provide access to innovative indices distinctly designed as investment solutions.....the indices Claymore ETFs track seek to best capture the investment potential of unique strategies." Innovative and unique strategies indeed. Per yesterday's volume tracker of their ETFs, the biggest one by volume was the BRIC ETF; symbol = EEB: Claymore/BNY BRIC ETF. The one that caught my eye today was NFO - the Sabrient Insider ETF. The unique theme here is insider buying, and the objective of the particular Index which the ETF is tied to is to actively represent a group of stocks that are reflecting favorable corporate insider buying trends. The chart above shows a nice move since the mini meltdown in late February.

France election this sunday - up up and away!

I couldnt resist. EWQ hitting a new high yesterday and mere pennies away today (as the Euro Zone takes the lead in our global rankings - more on that in the other blog) and i just had to get a Sikorsky pic here. Enjoy!

John Rogue Trader

Greetings,
I am going to add additional spin and insight regarding the world of finance, stocks, funds, and ETFs. I'll let my colleagues handle the traditional market intelligence, research, and reporting of what's working in sectors, styles, and international securities. I'll cover these similar categories perhaps with even more of an edgier look and feel. I think the suggestion to move the Sikorsky helicopter type stuff over here was probably a good one. Anyway, let's have some fun and do what we do best - MAKE A DIFFERENCE! Hope you enjoy our blogs.